Tesla’s ambitious plan to expand its auto production in Shanghai is encountering obstacles as it awaits approval from Chinese authorities to develop a 70-hectare plot of former farmland. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of China has adopted a cautious approach in granting approval for new electric vehicle (EV) production plans, expressing concerns about overcapacity and a price war triggered by Tesla, according to industry experts and rival executives.
Industry estimates suggest that China’s auto production capacity exceeds demand by approximately 10 million vehicles per year, which is equivalent to two-thirds of North America’s total output in 2022. The NDRC, wary of the oversupply situation, has been hesitant to give the green light to Tesla’s expansion plans, thereby posing a challenge to the automaker’s goal of utilizing its cost advantage from Chinese production to drive exports.
Tesla had previously disclosed its intention to add 450,000 vehicles of annual capacity at the Shanghai site, a project valued at over $18 billion. Although not officially confirmed, CEO Elon Musk reportedly discussed the expansion during his recent visit to China, expressing optimism about the progress made in the discussions. However, both Tesla and the NDRC have refrained from providing comments on the matter.
Despite complexities faced in the United States, where local production is encouraged, Tesla has relied on its Shanghai plant to gain a competitive cost advantage over its rivals and facilitate exports to Southeast Asia and Canada. With an ambitious target of selling 20 million cars globally by 2030, up from 1.31 million in 2022, Tesla has been exploring opportunities for manufacturing investments in India and has garnered attention from governments in South Korea and Indonesia.
Tesla’s presence in China has provided a significant cost advantage due to the country’s control over the supply chain and raw materials, leading to a potential cost reduction of up to 20% compared to EVs manufactured elsewhere. However, as the Chinese government grows increasingly concerned about overcapacity in the auto industry, progress for other companies seeking production permits, such as Xiaomi and Lucid Group, has been sluggish.
The situation marks a shift from Tesla’s initial entry into the Chinese market, during which analysts believed China sought Tesla’s assistance in fostering local EV development. Now, Tesla heavily relies on China for its competitive edge and supply chain benefits. The success of the company’s expansion plans in Shanghai holds significant implications not only for its production goals but also for its position in the global EV market.
While Tesla awaits the necessary approvals, industry analysts remain hopeful that progress will be made in the coming months, bolstered by Musk’s recent visit and discussions with Chinese officials. However, this situation underscores the intricate complexities and challenges faced by global automakers as they navigate the dynamic Chinese market.