According to a recent survey conducted by pollster Peter Hajek of Public Opinion Strategies, the Social Democratic Party of Austria – SPÖ is projected to win the upcoming state election in Carinthia on March 5th with 43 percent of the vote. The Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) is expected to come in second with 23 percent of the vote.
The survey was commissioned by the “Kleine Zeitung” newspaper and included a sample size of 800 people, 591 of whom were declared voters. The margin of error for the survey is around +/- 3.5 percentage points.
The survey also found that the Team Carinthia is at 13 percent and the People’s Party of Austria (ÖVP) is at 11 percent, placing them in third and fourth place, respectively. The race for third place is still open, with both parties having similar levels of support.
The Greens and NEOS are currently hovering around the five percent threshold needed to enter the state parliament, but it is still uncertain whether they will make it in this time around.
The survey also asked respondents about their preferred coalition after the election. The most popular choice was a red-black coalition between the SPÖ and ÖVP, with 28 percent in favor. Eighteen percent of respondents preferred a coalition between the SPÖ and Team Carinthia, while 10 percent supported a coalition between the SPÖ and FPÖ. Sixteen percent of eligible voters would like to see a SPÖ-free three-party coalition consisting of the FPÖ, ÖVP, and Team Carinthia.
When asked about their preference for governor after the election, 58 percent of respondents answered “yes” or “rather yes” to Peter Kaiser (SPÖ) remaining as governor. Thirty-one percent of respondents answered “no” or “rather no.” Of those who do not support Kaiser as governor, 34 percent would like to see Erwin Angerer (FPÖ) as governor, 28 percent would like to see Gerhard Köfer (Team Carinthia) in the role, and only 12 percent would like to see Martin Gruber (ÖVP) as governor.
The expected voter turnout for the election is around 67 percent, which is similar to the turnout for the previous state election in 2018. In that election, the SPÖ made significant gains, receiving 47.94 percent of the vote, an increase of 10.81 percentage points from the previous election.
The FPÖ also saw a gain of 6.11 percentage points, receiving 22.96 percent of the vote. The ÖVP received 15.45 percent of the vote, a small increase of 1.05 percentage points. The Team Carinthia, despite significant losses, was able to return to the state parliament with 5.67 percent of the vote.
The Greens, after a disastrous decline, were ejected from the state parliament with only 3.12 percent of the vote. The NEOS failed to make it to the state parliament with only 2.14 percent of the vote in their first attempt.