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Iraq dominates 11th District campaign
The race to Congress in the 11th District has been dominated by debate over the war, and political experts have differing opinions on whether any of the candidates will ride the topic to victory.Whether it has been arguments about who has opposed the war the most or longest, or allegations of conflict of interest, the Iraqi war has featured prominently in debates, blogs and mailings as four Democratic candidates work toward a June 10 primary.
Leslie Byrne, considered one of the front-runners for the nomination and a former member of Congress, frequently reminds voters that she opposed the war before Fairfax County Board chairman Gerry Connolly, her biggest opponent. The evidence she uses is a letter she sent President George W. Bush in 2003. She also calls for a quicker withdrawal of troops than the other candidates.
But anyone who has heard Connolly talk about Iraq has likely heard him also say that he has been a long and strong opponent who is bent on improving the war-damaged image of the U.S. abroad.
Add Iraq War veteran Doug Denneny and physical therapist Lori Alexander to the mix of and you have the most experienced, according to Denneny, and the most compassionate, according to Alexander, candidates in the running too.
Mark Rozell, a public policy professor at George Mason University, said the 11th District candidates “may be misreading their electorate” by focusing so much on the Iraq War.
Congressional races usually focus on more local issues, “bread and butter” issues like transportation, and education, Rozell said. “Members of the U.S. House will have marginal influence over the Iraq War.”
However, Rozell called the war “a safe issue for Democrats because there is overwhelming national opposition against it.”
“It's the top issue for the nation,” said Denneny, explaining why he has concentrated on it throughout the campaign. “I will go toe to toe with any Republican who says we can't turn the tide in Iraq.”
The winner of the June 10 primary will battle Republican Keith Fimian, an accountant and a business owner, for a seat that has been occupied by Republican Tom Davis for nearly seven terms.
Including Tysons Corner, Vienna and Fairfax City and extending south into Prince William County, the 11th District is packed with a mix of federal workers, contractors, and immigrants and is known as the nation's wealthiest district.
Bush marginally won it over Democrat John Kerry, but Gov. Tim Kaine and Sen. Jim Webb, both Democrats, captured it after that.
James Walkinshaw, Connolly's campaign manager, said the Iraq war focus of the primary race should be blamed on the media's coverage of it, adding that constituents are raising plenty of other issues.
But Davis, a Republican with a moderate reputation who announced that he would not seek re-election to the seat earlier this year, said the war will naturally play a big role in local races this year.
“The war is driving a lot of the left,” Davis said, adding that Webb rode the issue to victory in 2006.
Davis predicts a more moderate view on the war, and other issues – unlike the approach Byrne has taken – will be a bigger appeal to voters in the 11th District, he said. “The district is more moderate than left,” Davis said.
The candidates' Iraq policies differ some, but little, with all of them supporting a withdrawal of troops.
Byrne, a former state legislator and congresswoman, thinks the U.S. should withdraw troops from Iraq quickly and then invest in public works projects in the country.
Connolly, who worked for the U.S. Foreign Relations Committee for several years, advocates the plan by Sen. Joe Biden (D) to divide Iraq into three regions. Denneny, who has outlined what he calls a “smart, phased, withdrawal plan,” thinks the Biden plan would divide the people, he said at a May 29 debate.
“I don't see the candidates really distinguishing themselves from one another,” Rozell said.
While he firmly believes the country had no right to go to war in Iraq, Fimian supports victory, and then a withdrawal of troops in the country.
“To leave precipitously would now create a vacuum and bloodshed there, and it would soil our good name,” he said.
Candidates are likely do better in the 11th District if they stay somewhere around the center, Davis said.
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